Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
