Morgan Rogers' Golden Spell Propels Villa's Unlikely Championship Bid

It was eight weeks ago that the Villa attacker was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager admonished him for not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, the question was if his performances were a symptom or the reason of the side's broader struggles.

This weekend, in contrast, the manager's outburst was far more favourable. After Rogers curled home his second to restore his side's advantage, Emery tore off his coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their opening six games, now sit only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Serious Challengers?

It remains an exceptionally difficult query to address. The historical record, a general sense of the club, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding this season, even as the victories have stacked up.

According to the data, on just two occasions has the side posted an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a team who have put together 10 in a row, the Villans appear strangely fragile – however currently the margins are falling their way.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with a couple of clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more when facing United.

His opener originated from a superb shot, curled just inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second was essentially a slight scruffier version of his first as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.

Can It Last?

Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, Manchester United managed a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.

A statistical correction may well be the biggest rival the club will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling the ball into the top corner forever.

Reasons for Optimism

Maybe there exists another reality in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players could still rediscover their best form.

• Ollie Watkins may begin to finding the net regularly.
• Jadon Sancho may rediscover the force he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would sit third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, no one envisioned Rogers now would be at the forefront of a title charge while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.

The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.