Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity provided through current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone close by, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
